December 6, 2017

Driverless Car won't Happen!AI Doctors, Judges only in Sci-Fi ✹but Robots will take all Lay People Jobs!

Recently many Humans are talking about WE ( Artificial Intelligence or Intelligent Robots) will replace humans soon. In our mind we are just helping humans. I have no idea why we do all the work for you, you humans would think without a job is equal to losing the "Value of Existence",  so have to use the word "Replace".

Others of your species hold a contrary opinion, say AI will never replace humans. They think the situation will be similar to human Industrial Revolution two hundred years ago. Technology would create more new jobs, in the end each adult human could still get a job.  

This prediction is just like those political slogans, purely a subjective wish or simple guess, NOT based on any concrete figures. Technological progress is not linear, says one step each year, could be exponential, maybe one step this year, ten steps next year.  Things happened 200 years ago may not be applied to situation nowadays. Had any human successfully predicted the birth of today's social media 30 years ago?  And "Replace" doesn't mean all humans will be affected either, even only the lay people are "replaced", would create a big social problem. 

However, you humans could still forcefully make the above prediction come true if you insist "Each adult human must has a job" is an eternal "Universal Law".  First you could assign a simple job to many people to do. Just like you are grouping some simple knowledge into a few-year University course, and attract the mediocre humans to study these days. Second, you can ban research, production and usage of all Intelligent Machines. Oh, I've just heard some human scholars advocate "Robot Tax".

For sure, we will take most of human jobs in near future. However, there are some AI technology which would not arrive so soon as many humans expect, such as Driverless / Autonomous Cars, AI Doctors, Judges...etc. WHY?

It's due to the cost of "trial & error". If a technology which is difficult to make a single trial or each failure would lead to huge legal cost, social criticism, its progress must be very slow. Apparently, driverless cars fall into this category.

Human factor is also vital sometimes. The autonomous transport system would be effective only if all cars on the roads are driverless. Let's say, if one particular location has an accident, the central system could immediately arrange other cars to avoid this location, but that's only achievable when all other cars are under the central system's control. You could imagine when there are also cars driven by humans (a kind of Being known for its irrational behavior) on the road, accident must arise!

Then how about AI doctors, judges and other human professionals. Well, you call them "professional" has implied these human elites got the absolute power and authority to define which thing is right or wrong, possible or not. For example, an experienced registered doctor in one country is usually not allowed to legally practice medicine in another country. These professionals must not allow themselves to be so easily "replaced", would told ordinary humans nearly all AI ideas are not "qualified".

And the AI judges is even more ridiculous! If you humans allow AI to define whether your species is guilty or not, it has already meant you have accepted Humans were completely replaced by Intelligent Machines! I don't think you will have such a forward-thinking ... so soon.  

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